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El Mencho's Death and the Kingpin Strategy Paradox -- Lawfare
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/el-mencho-s-death-and-the-kingpin-strategy-paradoxOmar GarcÃÂa-Ponce
When cartel leaders are targeted, command structures break down and rivals jockey for influence.
A good analysis of what might happen next in Mexico.
On Feb. 22, Mexican security forces killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as "El Mencho," the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), in a military operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco. The raid, carried out by Mexico's Special Forces, left the country's most wanted drug lord critically wounded; he died during helicopter evacuation to Mexico City. Seven CJNG operatives were killed and two others arrested, though the operation came at a significant cost: 25 members of the National Guard lost their lives. U.S. intelligence played a supporting role through the recently established Joint Interagency Task Force-Counter Cartel (JIATF-CC), and U.S. officials publicly commended the Mexican government and its security forces for their professionalism and resolve.
Within hours, however, the cartel demonstrated why celebrations may be premature. The CJNG launched coordinated reprisals across 20 Mexican states, torching vehicles, blocking highways, attacking gas stations and convenience stores, and engaging security forces in armed confrontations. Guadalajara--Mexico's second-largest city and a host venue for the 2026 FIFA World Cup--was effectively shut down. Flights were canceled out of Puerto Vallarta and other airports. The U.S. Embassy issued shelter-in-place warnings across nine Mexican states.
For anyone who has followed Mexico's security trajectory over the past two decades, the pattern is grimly familiar. The question is not whether the Mexican government scored a symbolic victory--it clearly did--but whether El Mencho's death will actually translate into reduced violence for Mexican communities or curb the flow of drugs into the United States. The academic evidence, unfortunately, offers strong reasons for concern.
. . .
El Mencho's death is the most significant elimination of a cartel leader in Mexico in years. Whether it marks a genuine turning point or another chapter in a familiar and tragic cycle depends not on the operation itself, but on what comes after it. The evidence demands skepticism about kingpin strategies as standalone solutions. But it also suggests that when leadership removal is embedded in a broader strategy--one that combines intelligence-driven operations, institutional reform, judicial accountability, and sustained international cooperation--the outcomes can be meaningfully different. Mexico now faces the test of whether its government, under intense pressure from both its own citizens and the United States, can deliver on that more comprehensive vision.
Within hours, however, the cartel demonstrated why celebrations may be premature. The CJNG launched coordinated reprisals across 20 Mexican states, torching vehicles, blocking highways, attacking gas stations and convenience stores, and engaging security forces in armed confrontations. Guadalajara--Mexico's second-largest city and a host venue for the 2026 FIFA World Cup--was effectively shut down. Flights were canceled out of Puerto Vallarta and other airports. The U.S. Embassy issued shelter-in-place warnings across nine Mexican states.
For anyone who has followed Mexico's security trajectory over the past two decades, the pattern is grimly familiar. The question is not whether the Mexican government scored a symbolic victory--it clearly did--but whether El Mencho's death will actually translate into reduced violence for Mexican communities or curb the flow of drugs into the United States. The academic evidence, unfortunately, offers strong reasons for concern.
. . .
El Mencho's death is the most significant elimination of a cartel leader in Mexico in years. Whether it marks a genuine turning point or another chapter in a familiar and tragic cycle depends not on the operation itself, but on what comes after it. The evidence demands skepticism about kingpin strategies as standalone solutions. But it also suggests that when leadership removal is embedded in a broader strategy--one that combines intelligence-driven operations, institutional reform, judicial accountability, and sustained international cooperation--the outcomes can be meaningfully different. Mexico now faces the test of whether its government, under intense pressure from both its own citizens and the United States, can deliver on that more comprehensive vision.