January 17th this year here in the Midwest I

[moniss]

paid $2.77 per gallon for diesel for my truck after my fuel card discount. Retail was $3.19 per gallon. Now on March 14th at the same place I paid $4.25 per gallon after my discount and the retail price was $4.70 per gallon. This is at the cheapest place within 40 miles of me. Many of the fuel stops around me are pricing the discount at more than $4.75 per gallon with retail around $5.49 per gallon. I'm seeing some places with retail diesel prices at $5.69 per gallon.

That 45 cents per gallon means a great deal when you're buying 300 gallons at a time. I would note that the amount of freight has dropped very noticeably which means buying/building etc. is obviously predicted to slow and so that impacts things as well. When you combine this with other factors going forward it doesn't look good at all.

Higher food prices because of deportation of labor, higher diesel costs due to war, higher fertilizer costs due to war combined with shrinking jobs because of people, rightly so, holding back on spending and this begins to look like a grim picture indeed. Keeping in mind that fuel price increases haven't come anywhere near to peaking.

Many of us remember the '70's when prices were up on most everything every time we looked. Day after day and week after week.
So many young people have heard their elders talk about those years but now, sadly, they get the shock of living through that kind of thing.

The announcement of big releases from various countries petroleum reserves gets reported by the media and certainly it helps somewhat but what the media fails to point out is that those releases are not endless and any help from that is quickly used up.

[Rhiannon12866]

1. All gas prices here in NE New York have gone up considerably, but diesel has gone up the most

At the two closest gas stations near me, passed them tonight on my way home, the prices are now $5.09 and $5.19-a-gallon.

[Coldwater]

2. MAGA Be Like

[modrepub]

3. More Fuel Surcharges

Are what to expect.

My question is do these "fuel surcharges" actually make it back to the (independent) truckers pumping diesel into their tanks or does it stuck in the sticky fingers of the companies that collect the surcharges? I expect its the later.

When all the COVID inflation was raging, most large companies still reported profits. Back in the 70s and 80 when the first gasoline shocks were occurring, company profits pretty much tanked as fuel prices spiked' so it seemed like it was a shared pain across consumers and businesses. Contrast that with today, most large businesses seem unaffected, while consumers and small businesses suffer.

[moniss]

10. Some do pass on the surcharge but you never know if they

are telling the truth about how much they really got. For some they don't do a fuel surcharge and so you either keep hauling for less net profit or stay home and make nothing. Lots of truckers fall behind on their truck payments when these circumstances happen. Greedy companies count on people not wanting to get behind or get the equipment repossessed and so they keep them running cheap freight at almost break even rates.

Many of those greedy companies and freight brokers make the shippers pay higher but never pass more to the trucker. Truckers mostly never see the actual freight charge amount the shipper paid despite it being in the law. Most freight contracts contain a waiver provision of your right to see the records. They've got the freight and if you want to waive your rights you can haul or you can sit at home and not haul. Most really small truckers don't have a sales force to go to the shippers directly and establish contracts etc. so they depend on the freight broker system. There's a few honest ones but only a few out of the 10's of thousands. So basically for small truckers it's "take it or leave it" and if you walk away again and again the end of the month comes and you don't have the payment for the finance company.

If independent truckers could ever get together and take organized, targeted refusals to haul they could have some impact but it doesn't happen these days.

[BumRushDaShow]

4. Much of the media have been going back to what happened at the start of Russia's war against Ukraine

to do a "comparative analysis" of "oil shocks", and this is NOTHING like that. This IS more like the oil embargo of the '70s.

I remember it well because I lived on a main residential street that at the time, had 3 gas stations on the corner of a major intersection (a Sunoco, an Amoco, and and old-fashioned, sidewalk-type Gulf station, with the pumps right next to the sidewalk), with the "odd/even" (license plate) days, and long lines of cars stretched at least 2 blocks past our house (and we were a couple blocks from those stations). And our 8 cylinder station wagon, was lucky to get 8 mpg!

[OldBaldy1701E]

6. And just like then, we could have prepared for it, since we had the warning signs that it was coming.

But, we will destroy the planet to drain the last drops of oil and fight other nations for it, rather than figure out new ways to operate the vehicles without the item that they are holding over our heads.

An item that we have been programmed to believe that we have to have and that there are no replacements for it.

But... as usual... the 'head in the sand' methodology seems to be preferred.

[BumRushDaShow]

7. Well Joe Biden tried

with the "Inflation Reduction Act", which was actually the largest pro-climate infrastructure law of its kind, ever. And in swoops the GOP and their billionaires, to pretty much torpedo the whole thing.

[OldBaldy1701E]

8. For what it is worth...

Sadly, they were not all 'GOP' billionaires.

[BumRushDaShow]

9. In reality and to be realistic

"billionaires" have the "luxury" (pun intended) of being "party-less". They will switch to whatever "party" maximizes their interests.

[moniss]

11. Yes at one time I had a

Pontiac Grand Safari wagon with a 455 cu.in. engine and I was living in the city and I probably got around 3-5 miles per gallon. If that.

[AverageOldGuy]

5. When do farmers start seeing the shock?

Here's the way farming economics works.

SPRING is time to plant. Farmers hop on their tractors, plant seeds -- all of which involves the cost of seed, fertilizer, weed control, and diesel fuel for the tractors that make several passes over the fields.

Who pays for the seed, fertilizer, weed control chemicals, and diesel fuel? If the farmer has a large bank account, s/he pays cash. But most farming operations go to the local bank and take out a seasonal loan, which they pay off when the crop is harvested in the fall, which means the farmer pays interest on the loan all through the summer from whatever cash s/he has on hand.

However, in increased cost of diesel drives up the price of groceries because of production and transportation costs to produce the food and get it to market. Households cut back on consumption. Demand for farm produce drops. Farmers don't get the same price at harvest time.

Meanwhile, the cost of diesel has continued to go up, meaning the farmer is paying more for every time s/he drives a tractor over the fields for weed control, fertilizer, and harvest.

Comes time to harvest and pay off the crop loan, the crop doesn't not pay off the loan, or the crop pays off the loan but does not leave the farmer with any profit . . . .

[moniss]

12. Part of the problem for farmers is the timing

and terms for payment. The local seed and fertilizer place doesn't ship you a huge amount of fertilizer and then "hope" you pay later. They want the money when you are doing the deal. Also you have to order ahead to reserve what you want because there is only going to be just so much supply and there are lead times to deal with. Most farmers have only a certain storage capacity for diesel and so do you buy now or wait and hope it comes down a little? Do you stay short on supply trying to hedge price and take a chance on supply disruption?

Having said all of this the crop "finance" system is another issue with farmers using the harvest to pay off bills and for money for the upcoming planting but the tariffs shot the crap out of the grain markets/shipments here in the US and so there is way less money to pay for the upcoming planting season. So many turn to USDA programs for financing and if you are already struggling you may not get all that you need. That supposed "help" that Crumb The 1st promised hasn't even landed for most of these farmers. Another lie.

There was a guy on MS Now over the weekend who is head of a farmers organization and he said in 2025 over 15,000 farmers went out of business.