We need to pour some cold water on ourselves

[EnergizedLib]

Louisiana’s Senate primary demonstrated, again, MAGA has hijacked the Republican Party and that MAGA isn’t a cult that loves America, MAGA is a cult that loves the felon.

How sad, you have an R next to your name and you agree with the felon 99 times out of 100, you get primaried and you lose your seat.

Higher gas prices? A poor job market and economy? Higher grocery prices? Higher debt? Higher inflation? An unpopular war? A taxpayer funded ballroom the American populace as a whole rejects? That’s who they want, that’s what they want. They don’t support the felon because the felon’s views align with theirs, they change their views to align with the felon’s.

And I’m seeing and hearing stories about former MAGAt cultists who’ve finally woken up and realize they’ve been conned? They may exist, but it’s clearly not enough to move the needle, not during primary season, at least.

Good news, Gen. Z, Independents and Latinos have really soured on the felon. Now, can they vote, and can they vote for us?

Because this is what we’re up against. We can win, but thanks to them playing dirty with redrawing a bunch of maps, I don’t think we’re going to coast to a win. And if we take back one or both houses of Congress, we cannot let up, we must play the long game, we must redraw for 2028, including Virginia redrawing again.

[yardwork]

1. What I'm seeing is a constant churn.

Voters don't seem to be interested in right vs. left. They seem to throw out incumbents every time, hoping for somebody to fix things.

Polls don't show a move toward the Democratic Party. Polls show voter disgust with all incumbents and a readiness to vote for somebody, anybody, new.

I don't think this is encouraging. I fear that conmen will continue to be elected.

I think we're seeing this phenomenon in the Maine senatorial election right now, for instance.

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. Polls may not show a shift towards Dems, but election results do

All through the past year, actual election results in 2024 Trump +20 districts have shown a 15-30 point shift towards Dem in actual votes.

Dems have been over performing in both regular and special elections for over a year now.

I have seen no evidence that has changed or is going to stop.

[yardwork]

7. I hope you're right.

[EnergizedLib]

9. We did well in special elections leading up to 2024

And we’re still on the sidelines at the moment.

[sop]

2. Less than 37% of registered Republicans voted in the Louisiana Senate primary.

Typically, Republican primaries turn out the most extreme voters, in this case the ones who were most likely MAGA Trump cultists.

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. Primary voters are the most motivated, partisan voters

Here’s an important number I haven’t seen yet- how many votes were cast in the Republican primary vs how many were cast in the democratic one?

I don’t think the LA senate seat was ever in play, but seats in other (formerly) solid red states are, including TX, AK and even IA.

I’m sticking with hot showers, cuz I’m fired up for November!

[EnergizedLib]

8. Me too

Don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t expecting to flip Louisiana. Here in Indiana, I know what my party is up against, but those who voted against redistricting lost five out of seven primary races.

The only thing MAGAts (maybe) love more than the felon is themselves, and even that I’m not so sure about.

[AZProgressive]

4. I never had much hope for a good Republican Party

I didn't like them before Trump and I still won't like them after Trump. In fact the never Trump Republicans are actually coming over to the Democrats because they have no influence left with the Republicans so I really didn't have an expectation that Trump would no longer have influence over the Republican party.

I'm optimistic about the general election in the midterms but all the gerrymandering in the Southeast has me worried because without that I think Democrats not only win the House but run up the score while doing it.

[EnergizedLib]

6. I think we'll still win

Just that the bloodbath will be mitigated. So, when we win, we must fight fire with fire and the day after midterms, start redrawing for 2028.

[BootinUp]

10. "they change their views to align with the felon's"

Yep.