I know chances are about nil, but is anyone else getting the feeling Steyer could edge out Hilton?

[pat_k]

There is always a big swing left in late arriving mail ballots. I'm starting to think that this year that swing could be more pronounced than usual as Democrats waited for things to "shake out" and late breaking news or last minute changes in polling.

Then the felon came out with his warning that "they" are after Hilton now that Pratt is out. I can't imagine him saying that unless someone at the White House thinks things aren't so rosy for Hilton.

Full disclosure, I took a flyer on a bet Steyer would advance, assuming I was throwing my money out the window. Perhaps there is a teeny tiny glimmer of hope.

[RandySF]

1. No

[SSJVegeta]

3. Gentlemans bet? If Steyer doesnt make it to the runoff

(Or within 1% of second place) feel free to rub it in 😜

[onenote]

31. Would it be impolite to rub it in now?

98.3% of vote counted. Steyer down to Hilton by 1.9%

[SSJVegeta]

33. It would not!

I mean within 2% is still close-ish
But I was indeed quite wrong !

[SSJVegeta]

2. Yes

Chances are high. And have been for quite a while. I dont know that he will but if he doesnt, it will be darn close.

Late votes are among the most progressive votes counted in california and there is a high ceiling still for some huge gains by Steyer since Becerras ceiling is nearly hit.

PS I was right about Raman making the LA Mayor runoff even after early votes were counted and she was in a distant 3rd. I also have a bet riding on her making 1st place after all votes are counted -which I also have mentally prepared myself to throw away. Yet the math is starting to point towards thst possibility after all the votes are counted.

PPS I am not always right when it comes to this stuff but the stars seem to br aligned for some very strong progressive momentum lately!! 💪

[obamanut2012]

8. Why si Becerra's ceiling also capped? lol

Those "progressive" votes could be for Becerra as well as for Steyer. EVERYONE I know who is progressive voted last minute and voted for Becerra. He has just as much of a chance for everyone of those votes as Syere does.

[SSJVegeta]

9. Becerra isnt capped sorry. Hilton is. The remaining votes will be split at least close to evenly bt Steyer and Becerra

But that will also probably result in Steyer shooting into -or very close to Hiltons second place lead.

We are talking about a demographic probably slightly favoring Steyer:Young, working class, procrastinator... The Mayors race results are a glimpse -analogous to the same trend.

I expect Brecerra to be in a strong first place (mid 30s) with Steyer and Hilton well behind neck and neck. It will resemble much of what the LA race looks like right now when all votes are counted. I also expect the LA race will have bass and raman neck and neck for first.

I totally misspoke sorry!

[SSJVegeta]

10. Basically the remaining votss are almost entirely favoring Becerra and Steyer

So Steyer will get really close if not surpass Hiltons 2nd place lead.

[Upthevibe]

26. obamanut2012...........

Almost everyone I know waited until the very last minute too as did I.

[Wiz Imp]

4. Far from nil. Still a longshot but definitely could happen.

This person on Daily Kos believes Steyer will catch Hilton based on current trends.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/6/6/800051420/community/ca-gov-steyer-will-catch-hilton-per-todays-trends/

[SSJVegeta]

6. I believe he will get at least within a point of Hilton

Or better depending on how well Becerra did on the late vote.

[onenote]

32. Nope.

[SSJVegeta]

34. I swearrr I meant "within 2 points!"

[senseandsensibility]

5. There are currently about three hundred thousand votes separating Hilton and Steyer

with more than two and half million left to count. Votes at the end always swing bluer. This year in CA all the Dems I know waited until the end to vote and most were torn between Steyer and Becerra. All this to say I think it is still possible.

[obamanut2012]

7. No

[karynnj]

11. He would need to win all the rest of the vote by more

than he has won the last several days' drops.

[SSJVegeta]

12. Nope

He would just need to consistently get the numbers that he got in the last batch dropped today.

Tom Steyer (D) 117,940 35.8%
Xavier Becerra (D) 113,017 34.3%
Steve Hilton (R) 67,036 20.3%
Chad Bianco (R) 31,514

The rest of the votes will be neck and n3ck with steyer and becerra in the lead. There arent a ton of republican votes left.

[karynnj]

18. That batch is higher than the average batch as been

So we aren't in disagreement. Many of today's drops were from his best counties - judging from the NYT map that had the counties colored by leading candidate. If all batches were as good as these, he could catch up.

[SSJVegeta]

24. We shall see

It seems like a lot of red counties have the largest vnumber of votes waiting but they make up a very small amount of people compared to the remaining votes counts in the bay area and other places. 1.5 million votes are left and Steyer has a. 216k deficit. It might be very close.

[SSJVegeta]

13. Jsut a small percentage dropped today and Steyer ate into Hiltons lead by about 1/4th

This might just end with hilton trailing horribly.

You might be rich 😆

Hilton was leading steyere by 4.4 and is now leading his by 3.4

[pat_k]

14. Not exactly rich on a $20 bet, but it would be fun.

I made the bet at 3.1 cents. He advances and 3.1 cents pays a buck, so I'd bank $645

On edit: Seems the market remains skeptical. The bet remains cheap at 5.4 cents.

[SSJVegeta]

15. Rich...er?

If Raman pulls off a bigger miracle than Steyers second place finish, I win 4k off a 100 dollar bet if she finishes first. 😒 🤔

Not happening for me

[pat_k]

16. Isn't she on track for second?

[SSJVegeta]

17. Yeah but my bet was on first cause I'm like that

(Sorry had a super typo in the last post! Bet on first not second)

[pat_k]

19. Got it!

When I placed my bet on Steyer advancing, it really was just a flyer.

The only reason I tried to open an account at all is that I firmly believe the felon is incapable of making the necessarily humiliating deal with Iran -- a deal that will paint a giant L for Loser on the forehead of a man constitutionally incapable of sucking up a defeat. Toward the end of May the odds for a bet of No on "US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?" was something like 30%. I figured I'd put my money where my mouth is and make the bet. However, when I tried to open an account I hit a seemingly inescapable circle of failure to deposit funds and gave up.

It wasn't until I saw the Steyer bet down to 3.1 cents that I thought I'd take a flyer and give depositing money into the account another shot. This time it worked.

On the Iran deal, more people are seemingly beginning to "get" that as long as the felon is in the WH, there will be no "deal" because the odds on a deal before 2027 are now 50/50.

I'd go for no deal before 2028, but I think that sometime in 2027, as global and domestic chaos and harms escalate and more trumpublicans "get" that there is literally no way out of the Iran mess with the felon in the WH, they'll start pushing him to resign "for health reasons" to save face or be removed so J.D. can make the deal.

[SSJVegeta]

20. For some reason ddhq already called it for Hilton. That seems way too early and I think they are going to get burned

If they dont retract it soon. Almost half of the bay area still isnt in and most of the larger red counties (merced, riverside, san bernardino) that are waiting have significant college populations thst are almost certain to be heavily steyer.

[pat_k]

21. They are usually pretty good on calls. Of course, time will tell.

If he were behind more like 150,000 I doubt they would have called it. But with more than a 300,000 deficit....

My guess is that they are accounting for the swing toward Democrats, but are assuming the split between Becerra and Steyer will remain relatively constant. I'm not sure that assumption is correct, but time will tell.

[SSJVegeta]

22. So the deficit is apparently 216k votes I think. I think

The becerra steyer split will be constant but I think the GOP has hit most of their ceiling as their demographics usually vote much earlier than most, which wgive us huge gaps between dems and the next leading R in every batch. So it is just really hard to be so sure Hilton takes this.

They definitely are usually very good but they have run into problems in the past being too hasty. The 2018 valadao call is one of a few, I believe.

[Upthevibe]

28. pat_k...

She's been declared the 2nd place winner and Platt is out.

[pat_k]

30. I was responding what proved to be a typo ("second" mistakenly appeared in place of "first"...

... in what was corrected to "if she finishes first." )

[CoopersDad]

25. I'm hopeful. Met Steyer for a small group lunch meeting and loved what I heard.

I phonebanked for him, as well.

We need much better than Becerra, someone who will fight ICE and make serious changes.

I don't see that in Becerra, and much as he's a favorite among many.

[senseandsensibility]

27. NBC just called it for Hilton

with eighty eight percent of the vote in.

[pat_k]

29. Not a surprise.

Poor felon won't get his coveted accusation "first they took down Spratt then they took down Hilton."