TX-SEN: Talarico leads Paxton by 3 points in Texas Senate race: Poll

[RandySF]

Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) holds a 3-point edge over state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in the Lone Star State’s Senate race, according to a new poll conducted by the Texas Pulse.

The survey, released Tuesday, found that 47 percent of 807 respondents said they would vote for Talarico if the election were held now. Forty-four percent said they would vote for Paxton, while 2 percent said they would back another candidate.

Talarico’s lead, though, is within the margin of error of 4 percentage points. Texas Pulse, a joint partnership between the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University and ReconMR, conducted the poll from June 1-4.

While no Democrats said they would vote for Paxton, 9 percent of Republicans said they would back Talarico. After President Trump backed him, Paxton defeated incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn in the primary runoff last month, with Talarico extending an olive branch to the four-term senator’s supporters after he lost.





https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5916384-talarico-leads-paxton-texas-poll/

[PatSeg]

1. "Within the margin of error"

Sadly, that means it is close enough for voter suppression and other forms of cheating. We've seen this movie before.

[mr715]

2. A more clinical phrasing...

The margin of error means the results of this poll could be due to chance and do not reflect a true difference between the choices.

[PatSeg]

4. Can't take such polls seriously

Unfortunately, people do give polls too much credence. So often they've turned out to be very wrong.

[BannonsLiver]

7. On the other hand, maybe Talarico actually wins.

It’s bizarre that you don’t leave any room for that possibility.

[PatSeg]

11. Sorry, I think you misunderstood me

If Democrats win, but it is with close margins, that gives republicans wiggle-room to disenfranchise/intimidate voters and cheat in other ways that we've seen in the past. They accuse us of cheating because that is what THEY do.

That said, I think that yes, there is a good chance that Talarico can and will win, but I am allowing for the reality that republicans will use every trick in the book to steal that victory. They've certainly have plenty of practice and they don't think there is anything wrong with it.......well, as long as they are the ones doing it.

[Torchlight]

3. This poll is encouraging news for Texans

looking for a solutions-focused voice in Washington. Talarico’s ability to attract support beyond traditional party lines suggests that many Texans are ready for a new road. While the race is still very close, it's notable to me that his message is resonating with independents and even some Republicans.

(and despite living in Texas, I genuinely welcome and enjoy hearing perspectives from people in other states... ideas and opinions aren't limited by state lines)

[WSHazel]

5. Two things

1) This gap will never get big.

2) O'Rourke never got close than 3.4% behind Cruz in 2018, final polling gap was 6.8%, and final margin was 2.6%. The state was a LOT redder in 2018. The undecideds should slowly break to the challenger, or they will stay home.

[Ritabert]

6. Why would anybody vote for Paxton?

[Initech]

8. He's the ideal candidate for megachurch pastors and Fox News hosts.

[Ritabert]

10. People are stupid.

[SSJVegeta]

9. Quite a few competing poll results lately

How interesting!

I expect talarico to slam the rural and suburban regions with ads while focusing on volunteer recruitment and strong voter engagement in the cities and bluer suburbs. As the election draws nearer, any increased support in the rural and redder suburbs will turn into GOTV efforts in October. This is going to be a massive operation for Talarico! GOP is terrified because his ads are incredibly persuasive and softening GOP support for Paxton.

They may get desperate so look out for dirty tricks!

[Fiendish Thingy]

12. And things are just getting started

I wonder if Paxton has the guts to debate Talarico, and how many times?