Buffett Expects a COLLAPSE

[Uncle Joe]

Buffett just built the biggest cash hoard in American corporate history, selling stocks for years and leaving billions idle. Some claim this predicts disaster, but the real story is hidden in the numbers. This breakdown follows the paper trail, exposes market psychology shifts, and explains why Buffett hasn’t bought back in.

Buffett’s successor is making opposite bets, pouring billions into AI, airlines, and housing. Find out what this clash inside Berkshire Hathaway could mean for your money, and why average investors can’t just follow billionaire trades anymore.

0:00 Buffett’s $397 Billion Cash Warning
2:12 Why Berkshire Is Selling Stocks Instead of Buying
4:18 The Massive Apple Dump Nobody Saw Coming
6:22 Buffett’s Real Message About Market “Gambling”
8:35 Is the Stock Market More Expensive Than the Dot-Com Bubble?
10:45 Greg Abel’s $10 Billion AI Bet Changes Everything
13:05 What Buffett’s Cash Pile Means for Your Retirement Portfolio

[edhopper]

1. Of course there will be

between the biggest idiot the White House has ever seen, and the over investment into the AI bubble, a collapse is almost certain.

[lostnfound]

2. The encouraging thing is that he has it 'parked in boring old government T-bills'

guess that means he does not think the dollar will collapse and does not think the US government will default on its debt?

[Crowman2009]

7. I've just stuck with mostly credit union CDs.

I'm a bit iffy about financing this administration via treasury securities.

[A HERETIC I AM]

13. Ummm...you know that FDIC insurance you're probably hoping you'll never need?

That insurance is heavily invested in Treasuries.

So in a roundabout way, you are financing this administration

[BidenRocks]

15. How about NCUA?

[EdmondDantes_]

20. That's federally insured too

https://ncua.gov/consumers/share-insurance-coverage

Credit union members don’t need to apply to share insurance coverage as it’s provided automatically when they join a federally insured credit union. The Share Insurance Fund insures individual accounts at federally insured credit union up to $250,000, and a member’s interest in all joint accounts combined is insured up to $250,000. The Share Insurance Fund also separately protects IRA and KEOGH retirement accounts up to $250,000. The fund is administered by the NCUA and is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States.

[questionseverything]

9. I think it means he thinks the dollar won't collapse as much as other currencies

I hope he’s right on that

[highplainsdem]

3. Uncle Joe, that's a pro-crypto and pro-AI firm based in Dubai. On X their account is Coin Bureau:

https://x.com/coinbureau

[Uncle Joe]

4. Thanks for the heads-up highplainsdem,

but is their information incorrect insofar as Buffett's investments are concerned?

Per the video, Buffett is invested in treasuries vs crypto.

[highplainsdem]

10. I'm not going to watch a video from crypto bros. You can find info on Buffett's investments, and his

low opinion of crypto, by simply using search. I'd steer clear of crypto bros.

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/warren-buffett-warns-investors-risky-181400399.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/11/13/top-10-business-lessons-from-warren-buffett-for-life-ai-and-crypto/

https://www.investopedia.com/inside-buffett-s-strategy-berkshire-hathaway-owns-more-treasury-bills-than-the-federal-reserve-11850030

[DallasNE]

16. $300 billion Is Exactly

What Trump promised to give to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Is this just a coincidence, or is Buffett receiving a higher interest rate on his holdings to secure the deal?

[multigraincracker]

14. Like tulip bulbs. No real value.

[DFW]

5. I should ask my well-off friend in Dallas what he thinks.

He has about 60 shares of Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway-A stock, which cost him an average of under $70,000 a share. They are now ten times that. If he thinks there is a big bust on the way, he'll sell and eat the capital gains tax bill, which will be immense. He has a sixth sense about investing, which is how he came to accumulate so many share of BRK-A over 25 years ago to begin with. If he gets nervous enough to unload it all, even when it means a $12 million tax bill (or whatever it is these days) on the gain, I think THEN I will follow his lead on my own meager portfolio.

[GoodRaisin]

19. Sounds reasonable.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

6. Says who?

[Happy Hoosier]

8. Counterpoint

Buffet has been sitting in cash for a while now and left a LOT of money on the table. A correction is likely coming, but when it comes, will it justify all the gains Buffet has foregone? I have my doubts. But I’m also not Buffet, so there’s that.

[Bluetus]

11. I posted this on another thread, but it may fit better here

For those who are concerned about their 401Ks

Many people have part of their savings in the SPY ETF or mutual funds that include the insanely priced Mag 7 stocks. These companies have such high valuations that they distort the entire S&P 500 population. The Mag 7 stocks represent almost 40% of the S&P 500 capitalization now. The Mag-7 average a P/E of almost 30, whereas a PE of 15-17 is considered historically normal. Meta and Microsoft are close to the historical range, but Tesla is hanging out there at around 400 P/E. And there is an expectation that Tesla will soon be rolled up under SpaceX. SpaceX has a P/E of infinity. They are losing money bigly every quarter.

So what is an investor to do in this situation if one believes a) the Mag 7 companies are fundamentally overvalued, b) they are making a big mistake by dumping trillions into new AI data center capacity, and C) everything Musk does is ultimately a fraud of unprecedented proportions?

In an ideal world, there would be an ETF that includes the 500 companies, minus anything Musk has his fingers on. There is no such vehicle today, AFAIK. A sophisticated investor might buy the full index, but hedge against at least the Musk companies through options. Another strategy is a S&P 500 "equal weight" fund or ETF. In these funds, the Mag-7 have 4/500 weight instead of their almost 40% weight. These equal-weight funds have underperformed the S&P 500 in the past decade, but that's the point. The big "gains" have largely come from the crazy-valued mega-cap stocks. If one believes they are headed for an implosion, then an equal-weight fund might be a sensible alternative.

Any opinions about this?

[WarGamer]

12. We're near all time highs... of course there will be a dip. Smart people will buy the dip.

Like they always do.

[Bluetus]

17. I don't think that's what Buffet is saying.

Last edited Sat Jun 13, 2026, 11:36 PM - Edit history (1)

BRK doesn't invest in equities per se. They buy controlling interests in companies they think have fundamental value but can deliver better results with better management. He sees through the short-term nonsense (realizing that some of this "short-term nonsense" has been with us for 15+ years now.)

Buffet is not looking to "buy the dip", per se. However, if there is an equity or debt crash that places some fundamentally good businesses into great stress, THAT is the kind of oportunity BRK would jump on.

[Uncle Joe]

18. Precisely he said that the market psychology now was as a church combined with a casino.

I thought that was particularly telling considering *rump's track record with casinos.

However now with his successor, BRK's investment strategy seems to have changed.

[Bluetus]

21. That was an interesting dynamic (referring to his successor)

I couldn't tell if it was just some gentle joking among friends or if there really was some tension. I doubt that we'll see them change too much. They have made only one significant acquisition and that was $8.5 billion for Taylor Morrison Home Corporation. That is a very conservative move and 100% in line with their past actions. Home building is not high-tech. It is a very down-to-earth business. There are housing downturns from time to time, but our housing stock is historically low. Housing is likely to remain in demand because the material shortages will keep building prices high. This fits the Buffet model perfectly. They must think that they can bring resources to the table that will make Taylor Morrison more profitable.

I believe the company planned for the succession after Buffet and Munger in a way that would not raise any anxieties from long-term BRK investors (which includes loads of high net worth professionals (as opposed to institutions). Maybe in a couple of years they will go wild, but I expect they will ease their way forward. There is nothing wrong with parking cash for a while.

[LudwigPastorius]

22. One YouTuber's "COLLAPSE" is another person's valuations returning to sanity.

..and Buffet hasn't decided what gets bought and sold since last December.

[Melon]

23. He was sitting on record cash.....in 2023

They have missed two of the strongest market return years ever. I bet he was sitting on cash years before that.

Here they are in 2023 with the same headline.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-sits-on-record-157-billion-cash-pile-3777dd4b