The 2026 Election Is Being Decided at the Supreme Court

[Passages]

A case heard Wednesday will go a long way to determining whether Republicans can gerrymander their way to a near-permanent House majority.

by David Dayen October 16, 2025

The Trump gerrymandering tour has not been going well. So far, it has succeeded in Texas, where new districts could dislodge up to five Democrats, and Missouri, where lawmakers voted to muscle out Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO) by splitting up Kansas City. But Texas is under a legal challenge and, more importantly, still gives Democrats opportunities to hold onto at least two of the five seats, while the Missouri map could get challenged by referendum (surprisingly, without much help from national Democrats) and delayed into 2028. The Missouri Attorney General is now suing the signature gatherers, amazingly claiming that they are trying to silence the will of the politicians.

Meanwhile, California’s Election Rigging Response Act, which would draw new maps to likely offset losses in Texas with gains for Democrats, looks like it will sail to an initiative victory on November 4. Utah was forced by a judge to redraw its Congressional maps, giving one or maybe two Democrats a chance to win there. So accounting for what’s actually in place today, the outcome of the redistricting wars could be Democrats +1 or maybe even more.

Several other states are considering map changes; the fight is not over. But we don’t really have to look to Indianapolis or Tallahassee or Topeka or Columbus or anywhere else to figure out who will gain an advantage. You just have to look to One First Street, NE in Washington, D.C., the home of the Supreme Court.

SNIP*
What that means is that states could draw racially discriminatory maps, robbing minority voters of the fair chance to elect representatives. In practical terms, it means that a host of “minority opportunity” districts in the South will be obliterated. According to an analysis from Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter, overturning Section 2 could result in a direct shift of 19 districts to Republicans.
https://prospect.org/politics/2025-10-16-2026-election-supreme-court-gerrymandering-maps/

[bucolic_frolic]

1. Yes, all true

but they weaken strong red districts to do so. A watershed election could word against them. And the changes still have to be sold to the public. Americans know unfairness when they see it.

[Passages]

3. I hope so.

Our judiciary saved us in 2020, but our current obstacles are substantial.

Eight prominent conservatives released a 72-page report Thursday refuting claims of election fraud in the 2020 presidential election in dozens of unsuccessful court cases brought forth by former President Trump and his allies.

The group — which includes former federal judges, Republican senators and Republican-appointed officials — said they reviewed all 64 court cases Trump and his allies initiated challenging the election outcome, saying they had reached an “unequivocal” conclusion that the claims were unsupported by evidence.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3559758-conservative-group-finds-absolutely-no-evidence-of-widespread-fraud-in-2020-election/

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. By this time next year, the suffering will be widespread, affecting all but the billionaires

Economy will be in recession, double digit inflation, millions without healthcare or doubled premiums.

Stuff like that can be a great unifier against the party in charge- formerly polarizing issues like trans rights, green new deal, immigration, will fall by the wayside for all but a small percentage of die hard MAGA faithful.

Latinos who voted for Trump are abandoning him in large numbers.

Dems need to contest every house seat and campaign in every precinct for every vote.

Let’s do the math:

Gerrymandering and SCOTUS may provide a GOP advantage (but not a lock) on 19-24 seats that were formerly Dem seats, plus their current margin of 2 seats, minus at least the 5 seats from California prop 50, leaves an advantage of a maximum of 21 seats.

Currently, Dems are projected to pickup 20-30 seats- with Gerrymandering and SCOTUS, that could drop to -1 to +9.

Something to remember:

In 2018, Dems picked up 40 seats, and the economy was in far better shape than it will be in fall 2026

[Lonestarblue]

2. The MAGA cabal on the Court seems to be racist to the core while proclaiming to be colorblind.

I wish I could remember which book I read a few years ago that explained the Jim Crow era use of the word colorblind in legislation and policies to exclude black rights. It was eye opening because the book explored how white women’s groups perpetuated segregation and influenced state legislation. Colorblind is once again being used today to justify policies that benefit white people. It is not a neutral term.

[lees1975]

5. Population growth has shortened the Texas gerrymandering reach.

Some of the news media estimates I've seen show it to be virtually impossible now for Texas to squeeze Democrats out of districts without squeezing Republicans out of others. The last time they tried this they lost two Republicans and one Democrat won a narrow, surprise race in Southeast Texas, adding one seat to the Democratic number. Florida is in the same boat. Moving Republicans in one direction opens up one or two more rural districts to more urban Democratic voters. And it gets complicated, block by block.

My guess is that if three or four red states try it, three or four blue states, including California, will nullify it.