Putin Losing Control: Oil Burns, Oligarchs Flee - Jason Jay Smart
A quiet collapse is accelerating across Russia, not on the battlefield, but at the gas pump and in the nation's power grid. Ukrainian precision strikes have systematically dismantled Russia's energy infrastructure, taking an estimated 38 to 40 percent of its primary refining capacity offline as of October 2025. This investigation details the cascading failures, from the October 11 strike on the Bashneft refinery 1,400 kilometers inside Russia to the sabotage of critical rail lines by the ATEŞ partisan movement. The result is a grim reality for the Russian people: 57 regions now face fuel shortages, occupied Crimea is under strict 20-liter rationing, and Soviet-style queues are becoming a familiar sight. The empire built on oil is now running on fumes.
The economic fallout is just as severe. With its Urals crude trading at a steep discount and refined product exports hitting a decade low, Moscow's budget is hemorrhaging cash. To prevent total collapse, the Kremlin is forced to pay out billions in open-ended subsidies, turning a temporary patch into a permanent fiscal drain. This financial desperation is choking the life out of the domestic economy, with major industrial plants like Uralvagonzod and KamAZ shifting to three-day workweeks as credit dries up. The Russian economy is now bleeding cash just to keep its pumps from running completely dry.
This dual crisis of fuel and finance has triggered the final, most dangerous phase: political decay. To plug the holes in the budget, the Kremlin has turned on its own, launching a wave of asset seizures against its oligarchs. This has shattered the elite pact, turning quiet capital flight into an open exodus of people and wealth to hubs like Dubai. When oil stops flowing, money stops circulating, and the state begins seizing assets. Russias war economy is shrinking into a poorer, brittle command state run by fear and decrees, where every oligarch boarding a private jet is another crack in the system's foundation.
CHAPTERS:
00:00 Intro
01:01 Capital Flight & The Predatory State
03:28 Ukraine's Blackout Strategy: Critical Infrastructure Attacks
06:18 Putin Cuts Fuel Subsidies: Russia's Budget Crisis
09:49 Internal Purge: The Arrests of Russian Generals
11:30 Who Will Replace Putin? The Kremlin Power Play
13:28 Outro