Let's talk about Jefferies counting on lame duck Trump for the ACA.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Jeffries betting on Trump being a lame duck.

Well, despite the absolute opposition of Trump and the Republican leaders, House Minority Leader Jeffries seems optimistic that the discharge petition filed to force a vote on a clean three-year extension of the ACA tax credits will succeed, not just in the House, but also in the Senate. He seems to be under the belief that when it passes the House in bipartisan fashion, it'll put pressure on Republicans in the Senate to push it through. Jeffries said, "It will pass with a bipartisan majority, and then that will put the pressure on John Thune and Senate Republicans to actually do the right thing by the American people--pass a straightforward extension of the Affordable Care Act tax credits so we can keep health care affordable for tens of millions of Americans who deserve to be able to go see a doctor when they need one.”

Thune has basically said any straight extension of the ACA was dead on arrival in the Senate. What Jeffries is hoping for is a repeat of the dynamic that occurred with the Epstein Files discharge petition when Trump mounted an ultimately failed months long pressure campaign to keep the Epstein files under wraps and the Republican party went along with right up until they didn't. Once the discharge petition was successful and Republicans knew they would be on record with the vote, they voted to release. He's hoping that same dynamic plays out.

But Jeffries might be overestimating how much congressional Republicans care about the base knowing they're hurting working class healthcare. At this point, much of the Republican base has turned being Republican into a social identity, not a policy position. The weird part for Jeffries is that he seems to understand the Republicans are willing to hurt their own voters through health care cuts. He said, "As Democrats were promising to focus relentlessly on driving down the high cost of living, to make life more affordable for everyday Americans, and to fix our broken health care system, which Republicans have been damaging in an extraordinary way throughout the year. including by enacting the largest cut to Medicaid in American history.”

The largest Medicaid cut in American history. They haven't seen a massive backlash from that yet. So, they may be willing to risk kicking the working class again by voting down an ACA credit extension on the record.

Now, the flip side is that because action won't happen until after the new year, more and more of the GOP base will see their rates skyrocket. If they choose to actually call their representatives and senators, it's possible we see widespread defection with the vote. If that happens, there's no longer debate or discussion. Trump will be the lame duck many suspect him to be. For Trump, this isn't just a health care fight anymore. It's a fight for the rest of his presidency.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.