Estimating the GOP Edge from Redistricting: A State-by-State Accounting, with Caveats

[RandySF]

We haven’t yet given an overall seat-by-seat assessment of the impact of redistricting. But with the process potentially winding down, at least for 2026, we thought we’d offer some back-of-the-envelope math now, which we’ll keep updating as changes are formalized for 2026 and any legal action is resolved.

Unfortunately, those looking for precise clarity on redistricting’s effect are going to have to wait until after the election, as it will take analysis to determine whether certain close results might have gone the other way had there been no changes to the maps. For instance, let’s say, hypothetically, that Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D, OH-9) loses by 1 point this fall in what we currently rate as a Toss-up race. Her district got 4 points redder at the presidential level in redistricting, so we’ll probably be able to say that she likely would have won without redistricting.

What follows is a state by state assessment of redistricting. We are using our ratings as a guide here. If a race is rated something other than a Toss-up in our ratings, we counted it as a redistricting-related gain or loss. If a race was rated as a Toss-up, we included it as part of a range. Even by doing this, there is uncertainty built in—for instance, we call North Carolina R +1 below because the new Republican map there targets Rep. Don Davis (D, NC-1). But we only rate that race Leans Republican, meaning that we think there’s a chance Davis could hang on. So North Carolina could end up being a wash in redistricting.

Anyway, here goes:




https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/estimating-the-gop-edge-from-redistricting-a-state-by-state-accounting-with-caveats/