Interesting poll on potential 2028 candidates (Vance loses his lead to Rubio, AOC ahead of Harris and Newsom)

[Polybius]

13. "Who knew in 2024 that 9 million fewer voters"

I knew. Voter turnout in 2024 was never going to match the record levels of 2020 because that year was an exceptional case influenced by a pandemic. States significantly broadened and pushed mail-in and early voting options to minimize in-person interactions, sending ballots directly to registered voters, simplifying requirements, and extending deadlines. This encouraged millions who might have otherwise stayed home. The end result was a turnout of about 66%, the highest since 1908.

A lot of those extra voters in 2020 were first-timers or people who usually don’t vote much, motivated specifically by Covid and the relaxed voting rules. Once those temporary measures were rolled back and the health crisis subsided, the spike in convenient voting declined.

In 2024, turnout was still strong, but it didn’t reach the unusual heights of 2020. The electorate returned to normal without the extraordinary factors Covid. Not only did many of the voters from the pandemic era not come back, they weren't expected to.