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yardwork

(68,340 posts)

13. This conversation illuminates why it's hard to predict winners and losers.

Sat Oct 11, 2025, 08:46 AM

Oct 11

There's a wide range of understanding, from one extreme to the other. Supposedly smart commentators and investors aren't necessarily smart or informed. (In a thread yesterday DUers discussed an opinion column in WaPo by a British "financial writer" who had predicted that the iPhone would go nowhere and was a Brexit promoter. Yesterday he was promoting Trump's tariffs and mocking economists who were "wrong. I imagine that guy makes a lot of money going around being wrong most of the time.)

AI is on the edge of changing just about everything - including medical research. (I think the billionaires recognized that and that's one reason NIH is being obliterated. They want all the new drugs and discoveries for themselves to sell. They don't believe in the common good.)

But there's also a lot of garbage. Garbage companies, pump and dump schemes, lots of cons. And most of us don't have a clue which is which. There will be a crash like there was with the housing market in 2008, but houses didn't go away then and neither will AI.

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Bernardo de La Paz raging moderate MrsCheaplaugh GenThePerservering Tumbulu

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Highlight:

'It's going to be really bad': Fears over AI bubble bursting grow in Silicon Valley [View all] Mr. Sparkle Oct 11 OP

Can we train AI EYESORE 9001 Oct 11 #1

Humans like money IronLionZion Oct 11 #19

I'm reminded of a story about capturing monkeys in the wild EYESORE 9001 Oct 11 #21

Who didn't see this coming? mwmisses4289 Oct 11 #2

They saw it coming OldBaldy1701E Oct 11 #4

Nonsense. They do care. It's money. It's a lot of money. Bernardo de La Paz Oct 11 #8

They knew they were being crazy with their ideas about growth and income and damage caused, and they still did it. OldBaldy1701E Oct 11 #22

Sure, they knew what they were doing--making claims and asking for funding. Igel Oct 11 #36

Maybe it's time dweller Oct 11 #3

When AI can actually do something, I will applaud UpInArms Oct 11 #5

"Until cars have rear view cameras they are just toys. Only good to play with." Bernardo de La Paz Oct 11 #6

This conversation illuminates why it's hard to predict winners and losers. yardwork Oct 11 #13

Yes. You share a good perspective. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Oct 11 #18

Zuckerberg, Gates, and many other billionaires have been funding medical research. yardwork Oct 11 #20

The scientists who intuitively "know" how to use AI to make medical discoveries will be rare. hunter Oct 11 #34

It's much bigger than that. yardwork Oct 11 #43

The notion that humans are infinitely repairable machines is absurd. hunter Oct 11 #63

Those are all very good points. yardwork Oct 11 #69

Business loves AI for one reason customerserviceguy Oct 11 #50

Yes, "tireless huckster". But no, there are lots of reasons for AI that have nothing to do with prying. . . .nt Bernardo de La Paz Oct 11 #51

So, Robots. They're on the way. thought crime Oct 11 #70

6 fingered ai portraits and they think it's going to run the world? Do they know humans only have 5? Blues Heron Oct 11 #7

LOL..how many toes did Traitor Green have in that picture of her months back? Bengus81 Oct 11 #10

Maintain that attitude and you will be overtaken by events. Bernardo de La Paz Oct 11 #11

Let me guess, you have ai stock Blues Heron Oct 11 #12

Anybody who has a retirement fund is invested in AI. yardwork Oct 11 #14

No wonder your into it. Divest now while you can, before the bubble bursts Blues Heron Oct 11 #16

Ok, that made me laugh. yardwork Oct 11 #17

And do what? Keep it in cash, losing value through inflation? Igel Oct 11 #39

As to the report, I've heard versions several times on CNBC and I think it is the truth Bernardo de La Paz Oct 11 #42

I've seen those same reports about AI buoying the U.S. economy. yardwork Oct 11 #44

And that's a problem. Many have no choice how their retirement is invested. AI company bubble bursts and bam Cheezoholic Oct 11 #26

Agreed. Human greed is a problem. yardwork Oct 11 #46

You can't attack the message, so you attack the messenger by alleging corruption (self-interest) Bernardo de La Paz Oct 11 #15

My little quibble: MrsCheaplaugh Oct 11 #25

Interesting Observation. delisen Oct 11 #28

It's my quibble too and it's not a little one. They are building these massive data centers everywhere and ratchiweenie Oct 11 #32

This massive use of power is a temporary phase. Ten / 20 years from now it won't use so much. Bernardo de La Paz Oct 11 #38

There is push back on these big data centers Deminpenn Oct 11 #45

But at the heart of the matter is that with all of the bells and whistles moniss Oct 11 #37

Fine points, but I was refuting the simplistic idea that "garbage in garbage out" means that AI is useless. . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Oct 11 #40

Understood and I agree that AI is not useless but moniss Oct 11 #47

You big tech guys going to ask Trump for a refund of the millions of $$ you foisted on him? Bengus81 Oct 11 #9

it should be. barbtries Oct 11 #23

Good. infullview Oct 11 #24

Quibble: delisen Oct 11 #30

Lazy doesn't include you. infullview Oct 11 #49

I hope, after the crash, AI focuses more on stuff like this. Oneironaut Oct 11 #71

Please. Let it be a hard, hard crash. hunter Oct 11 #27

It will be hard Pachamama Oct 11 #31

Email was going to be free forever too. bucolic_frolic Oct 11 #29

The economic terrorists are working to destroy the economy of California. . Clouds Passing Oct 11 #33

Nonsense. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Oct 11 #52

Just wait and see Clouds Passing Oct 11 #54

I'll wait and see about things that are explained and not simply eleven-word blurts. Bernardo de La Paz Oct 11 #59

Call it following the path of past behavior. Educated guess. Doesn't take a genius to see where it's going. Clouds Passing Oct 12 #74

That is not the past behaviour. I'm not a genius and you are educated, so explain it. I don't see where it is going. Bernardo de La Paz Oct 12 #76

That is the reichwing trajectory, to take over the 4th largest economy in the world. Clouds Passing Oct 12 #80

I agree, the oligarchs want to tighten their strangle hold on wealth & income, but not that way Bernardo de La Paz Oct 12 #81

Everytime I hear of AI I think of Hal in 2001 space odyssey kimbutgar Oct 11 #35

And if AI suffers its demise... GreenWave Oct 11 #41

AI is certainly over-hyped Deminpenn Oct 11 #48

Very interesting article. Agreed: well worth the read. Thanks! . . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Oct 11 #58

Venture bubbles are usually isolated WSHazel Oct 11 #53

The dot.com bubble caused a mild recession SamuelTheThird Oct 11 #56

This may be worse not bc of bubble bigger, but bc of Trumponomics in the background being propped up Bernardo de La Paz Oct 11 #60

This generation of AI is pretty limited. C_U_L8R Oct 11 #55

Also the data center issue Diraven Oct 11 #57

We are approaching that point. There is circular financing now Bernardo de La Paz Oct 11 #61

AI - A whole lot more canned hot air for sale. I suggest you read J.K. Galbraith's The Great Crash. flashman13 Oct 11 #62

I attended a Galbraith lecture in the later 'seventies and a discussion afterwards. hunter Oct 12 #75

Me too! Early 70s. He had the most wonderful and distinctive speaking style. flashman13 Oct 12 #77

And an incredible dry wit that would cut through the most inflated ego. flashman13 Oct 12 #79

Not as bad as the global bitcoin bubble which is sure to eclipse the AI bubble Glorious bastard Oct 11 #64

I suspect they will both explode more or less simultaneously. One will trigger the other. flashman13 Oct 11 #65

That's a very likely possibility. Glorious bastard Oct 11 #66

So our stock market is just unbridled bubbleism? mdbl Oct 11 #67

Correct! flashman13 Oct 11 #72

I can't wait. It's going to be spectacular. ❤️ littlemissmartypants Oct 11 #68

The bubble isn't going to burst (if it does) any time soon because... LudwigPastorius Oct 11 #73

It will be less of a national security issue if AI "research" (corporate exploitation) hits a wall of reality. Bernardo de La Paz Oct 12 #82

Don't want it, don't need it, would rather avoid it. discntnt_irny_srcsm Oct 12 #78

We've had a bubble and burst economy for some time. raccoon Oct 12 #83