'It's going to be really bad': Fears over AI bubble bursting grow in Silicon Valley

[Bernardo de La Paz]

15. You can't attack the message, so you attack the messenger by alleging corruption (self-interest)

It wouldn't matter whether I was in AI stocks or not. But FYI, I am completely out of stocks since January. The market is too risky.

Further, I am considering shorting some AI and AI-adjacent stocks or running bear option strategies.

We are about to enter another AI Winter, but it is will be relatively brief (say three to five years) and relatively shallow (because the sector is so advanced). When I say it is advanced, you ain't seen nothin' yet. Currently the sector is having some success with Large Language Models but they require huge data centres and massive power supplies. That will be reduced and the capabilities will increase. AI of 2035 will be as different from now as smart phones of 2009 were different from flip phones of 1999.

There were two major AI "winters" approximately 1974–1980 and 1987–2000,[3] and several smaller episodes, including the following:

1966: failure of machine translation
1969: criticism of perceptrons (early, single-layer artificial neural networks)
1971–75: DARPA's frustration with the Speech Understanding Research program at Carnegie Mellon University
1973: large decrease in AI research in the United Kingdom in response to the Lighthill report
1973–74: DARPA's cutbacks to academic AI research in general
1987: collapse of the LISP machine market
1988: cancellation of new spending on AI by the Strategic Computing Initiative
1990s: many expert systems were abandoned
1990s: end of the Fifth Generation computer project's original goals