'The Youth Swing for Trump Was Always Overblown'

[sop]

(TPM) "As the dust settled in the days after the 2024 election, one of the narratives that quickly took shape was that young people had helped elect Donald Trump to a second term. As The Independent put it at the time, 'Democrats may no longer be able to rely on young voters to boost numbers, as Harris appears on track to have the lowest support among voters aged 18-29 in this century.' "

"Here’s what actually happened. According to data from the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University (CIRCLE), young voters preferred Kamala Harris over Trump 52% to 46%. Young women supported Harris 58% to 40%; 75% of Black voters under 30 supported Harris; 58% of young Latino or Hispanic voters backed Harris; and 72% of young Asian voters backed Harris. The supposed youth swing towards Trump was predominantly among young white men, who backed him by 14 points (56% to 42%). Overall, CIRCLE’s staff found, while Trump saw a '10-point jump (36% to 46%) in youth support for Trump compared to 2020, young people were still the age group with the highest support for the Democratic candidate this year.' (Emphasis mine!)"

"Ahead of the 2026 midterms, we’re getting a round of articles about how Gen Z has once again decided to reject Trump and the GOP. Politico Playbook this week highlighted the results of a new survey showing that 'economic concerns are pushing 18- to 34-year-olds back to the left for the midterms,' and the headline on a TIME feature blared that 'Young Voters Are Turning Away From Trump.' "

"This narrative boomerang can be attributed in no small part to treating 2024 as just another presidential race versus a bonkers aberration of an election cycle. I mean, the 81-year-old Democratic nominee dropped out of the race less than four months before Election Day! Young people were on the record as deeply disliking both Trump and Biden, and Harris, as Biden’s VP, was inextricably tied to the president’s record in office."

Continued at link:

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/the-weekender/the-youth-swing-for-trump-was-always-overblown