Gerrymandering can't fix the GOP's voter problem

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Gerrymandering can’t fix the GOP’s voter problem
Legal wins won’t matter if Republicans can’t get people to vote for them

By Russell Payne
Staff Reporter
Published May 12, 2026 6:30AM (EDT)


(Salon) In the past two weeks, Republicans have racked up major legal wins that stand to benefit the party in its quest to insulate itself from a midterm cycle that’s expected to wipe out their House majority. The problem for Republicans is that, even in favorably drawn districts, they still need to convince people to vote for them — and that task is getting harder by the day.

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The combination of the Callais decision and the Virginia Supreme Court ruling have, in the course of a few weeks, dramatically darkened the midterm picture for Democrats, who are aiming to retake the House and Senate in November.

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While there is still a long-shot scheme to redraw the maps in Virginia despite the court order, election analysts largely expect the current maps — except for those states in the Deep South taking advantage of looser racial gerrymandering laws — to be the maps that the midterms play out on. That’s because in many states, elections are already underway, and most state governments aren’t as ready to suspend elections as the governments in Louisiana and Alabama.

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Even considering the new maps, however, Skelley said that in his estimation, Democrats are still favored to retake control of the House in November. What Republicans have managed to do with their redistricting push was to raise their baseline of seats they can be expected to control, which will likely chip away at any incoming Democratic majority, but isn’t likely to prevent it, at least if current trends continue.

“I do think Republicans, in the wake of all this, are in a better position to potentially hold on, but because the national environment is just pretty bad for the GOP,” Skelley said. “But in midterm years, in conditions like this, we would tend to see a sort of swing toward Democrats that’s large enough to overcome this.” ...................(more)

https://www.salon.com/2026/05/12/gerrymandering-cant-fix-the-gops-voter-problem/