Vladimir Putin Is Heading For A Fall

[littlemissmartypants]

By Melik Kaylan, Contributor.
Melik Kaylan covered global geostrategic conflicts for three decades

Published Jun 29, 2026, 04:45pm EDT

Putin is in terminal trouble - on many levels. Let us consider the acuteness of his predicament, the likely outcomes, and the potential time lines. Here is my recent interview where I predict Putin’s demise on a prominent podcast, namely Sebastian Junger’s substack. Junger is a world-renowned war journalist, award-winning author and documentary maker. (He also wrote The Perfect Storm book that became the movie - and a new phrase in our language. I recommend his substack with the greatest enthusiasm.)

Due to incessant Ukrainian drone strikes Crimea is virtually cut off from fuel. A traffic jam of cars many miles long trying to leave the peninsula at peak tourist season makes for bad optics. The Russians only have one last conduit for fuel supplies: the Kerch bridge - a highly symbolic piece of architecture, bombed many times but still standing. Gasoline trucks going across will present a ripe target, promising a massive fireball should they be hit in a strike. My sources inside Ukrainian intelligence tell me such a strike on a massive scale is imminent.

We all know how the tide has turned in the Ukraine war, but the optics matter as much as the reality on the ground. When disasters occur so singular that neither Putin nor the Russian public can ignore them, the reality itself shifts. The entire barbaric Ukraine adventure will look like a catastrophe. Putin cannot avoid the tarnish. Indeed, when he cannot even control the optics the effect gets multiplied, the clock starts ticking toward his end. Loss of credibility leads to loss of legitimacy in a despotic regime.

A Russian military blogger, Aleksandr Lunin, veteran of the Ukraine invasion, recently put out a video warning of mutiny and demanding a personal televised interview with Putin. He spoke of secrets told him by higher-ups he needed to impart to Putin. Last count it had 11million views. He followed up with another video softening his stance but that in turn was quickly followed by a supporting video from a group of soldiers threatening to turn their guns on their torturing officers. Lunin is now in jail. The Prighozin revolt comes vividly to the public mind.
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Original link:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/melikkaylan/2026/06/29/vladimir-putin-is-heading-for-a-fall/
Archive link:
https://archive.is/uahOU