Trump crackdown drives 80% plunge in immigrant employment, reshaping labor market, Goldman says

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https://archive.ph/ZqrBW#selection-301.0-301.95

. . . While net immigration averaged approximately 1 million people per year during the 2010s, that figure fell to 500,000 in 2025 and is projected to plummet further to just 200,000 in 2026, Goldman said. That represents an 80% decline from the historical baseline, a shift the report attributes directly to aggressive policy changes . . .

. . . Goldman Sachs estimates this “break-even rate” of job growth will fall from its current level of 70,000 jobs per month to just 50,000 by the end of 2026. . . .

. . . Last August, J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategist David Kelly predicted there could very possibly be “no growth in workers at all” over the next five years owing to the change in immigration to the U.S. and the aging of the native-born workforce.

. . . The crackdown may also be pushing the labor market into the shadows, Mericle found. The report suggests that “stricter immigration enforcement pushes more immigrant workers to shift to jobs that fall outside of the official statistics,” potentially skewing federal data. This shift complicates the Federal Reserve’s ability to gauge the true health of the economy, as official payroll numbers may fail to capture the full picture of employment activity.