S&P 500 closed Tuesday 2/10 at 6942, down 0.3% # Real retail sales, adjusted for inflation, down, 🚨 delinquencies up

[progree]

1. Some prior reports

Last edited Tue Feb 10, 2026, 07:11 PM - Edit history (7)

Most Recent First (reverse chronological order)


FRIDAY JAN 30

# PPI Producer price index (aka wholesale prices) (delayed report) DECEMBER

REGULAR PPI: DECEMBER: +0.5% (Oct: +0.1%, Nov: +0.2%), 12 months: +3.0%
CORE PPI (ex food, energy, trade services): DECEMBER: +0.4%, 12 months: +3.5%

LBN THREAD: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143608234
BLS SOURCE: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

a 0.7-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods were unchanged
2/3 of the broad-based December rise in prices for final demand services can be traced to a 1.7-percent jump in margins for final demand trade services. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.)

----- Data Series ----
PPI http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
Core PPI http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116 (wo food, energy, trade services)
The actual one month numbers (December over November) to 2-digit accuracy: PPI: +0.50%, Core PPI: +0.36%. When annualized, they are 6.0% and 4.4% respectively.
Below are the annualized numbers so they can be compared to the Fed's 2.0% target:

1 mo 3 mo 12 mo
6.0% 3.3% 3.0% PPI
4.4% 5.1% 3.5% CORE PPI = PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Fed Target

There is also a core PPI data series where core is defined as the PPI ex food and energy
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49104

I use the one that is PPI ex food, energy, and trade services because that is the one the BLS highlights (and did so in the pre-Trump past too, so it's not a conniving Krasnov thing). Trade services, which is the wholesaler's margin, is very volatile from month to month.

THURSDAY JAN 29

# Unemployment insurance claims
Week ending Jan 24 -1,000 to 209,000, 205,000 expected, (Not seasonally adjusted: 231,181)
Continuing Claims, week ending Jan 17: -38k to 1.827M
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-21ccf4e6ebbcabbc424e2feb56f0fee7
* SOURCE URL: The CURRENT one is always at: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf . . . this release's permalink is at https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20260129
* Permalinks for the current one and recent previous ones: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases
. . . and search the page for "Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report"

# U.S. trade deficit (delayed report) NOVEMBER
US trade deficit widens by the most in nearly 34 years in November, Reuters, 1/29/28
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-trade-deficit-widens-most-144236696.html
* DU LBN THREAD (also of Reuters article) https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143607655

The U.S. trade deficit widened by the most in nearly 34 years in November amid a surge in capital goods imports, likely driven by an artificial intelligence investment boom, which could prompt economists to trim their economic growth estimates for the fourth quarter.

The trade gap increased 94.6% to $56.8 billion, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau said on Thursday. The percentage change was the largest since March 1992. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the trade deficit would rise to $40.5 billion.
MORE ---
The deterioration in the trade deficit in November could temper economists' expectations that trade will deliver another large ⁠boost to gross domestic product in the fourth quarter.

Trade contributed to GDP growth in the second and third quarters of 2025.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting ⁠that GDP increased at a 5.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, though estimates from big Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs, are running well below a 3.0% pace.

* The U.S. trade deficit isn’t actually falling due to tariffs. It’s still near a record high, MarketWatch 1/29/26
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fools-gold-the-u-s-trade-deficit-isnt-actually-falling-due-to-tariffs-its-still-near-a-record-high-17412f1b

The trade deficit fell a few months ago to a 16-year low, but it was fool’s gold. The U.S. is still running a trade gap near historically high levels.
In November, the deficit almost doubled to $56.8 billion from just $29.2 billion in October.
The October deficit was the lowest since 2009 and was almost entirely the result of disrupted trade patterns tied to higher U.S. tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
More...

The U.S. trade deficit totaled $839.5 billion through the first 11 months of 2025, compared with $806.5 billion in the same period in 2024.
For all of 20215, the U.S. is on track to post the second- or third-largest trade deficit ever.

# U.S. productivity (revised) Q3 (was 4.9% in the initial report)

# Wholesale inventories (delayed report) NOVEMBER

# Factory orders (delayed report) NOVEMBER

WEDNESDAY JAN 28

# FOMC interest-rate decision and Powell press conference (2:00 P.M. and 2:30 P.M. ET respectively)
As expected, they kept the interest rate unchanged. There were 2 dissents, both wanting a rate reduction. I haven't looked or seen any jibber jabber about how many rate reductions are expected in 2026.

TUESDAY JAN 27

# Consumer confidence, Conference Board, January
Americans' confidence in the U.S. economy falls sharply in January to lowest level since 2014, AP, 1/27/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-confidence-u-economy-falls-151544532.html
below even the lowest level of the pandemic
DU LBN Thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143606137
From the source: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/
For graphs, click above link, or the DU LBN thread link


MONDAY JAN 26

# Durable-goods orders, NOVEMBER (delayed report)
Durable goods jump more than expected in November, 1/26/26
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/durable-goods-jump-more-than-expected-in-november/ar-AA1V0fWT


FRIDAY JAN 23

# Consumer sentiment (final) January
Consumer sentiment remains depressed in January as higher costs, weakening labor market weigh on outlook, Yahoo Finance, 1/23/26 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-sentiment-remains-depressed-in-january-as-higher-costs-weakening-labor-market-weigh-on-outlook-154756985.html
. . . The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for January came in at 56.4, up 3.5 points from December but some 21% below last year's level of 71.7. (the previous preliminary data number was 54)
. . . Inflation expectations showed some signs of improvement, with year-ahead inflation forecasts falling to 4% from 4.2%. (from another article: five to ten year inflation expectations inched up to 3.3% from 3.2% last month.)
. . . Bloomberg - consumer sentiment is at a 5-month high == https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-consumer-sentiment-reaches-five-month-high-in-broad-gain/ar-AA1UPxug
. . . Progree - See 10 YEAR CHART - it barely caused the 3-month moving average to turn up just a bit, from a very low level
* SOURCE URL: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
. . . 10 YEAR CHART: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsr.pdf

# S&P flash U.S. services PMI January
# S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI January
Economy shows signs of cooling, S&P finds. Tariffs still weigh on growth and hiring, MarketWatch, 1/23/26
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/economy-shows-signs-of-cooling-s-p-finds-tariffs-still-weigh-on-growth-and-hiring/ar-AA1UPu58

January PMI initial readings show 'sustained' but cooling economic growth, Yahoo Finance, 1/23/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-cap-volatile-week-with-back-to-back-weekly-losses-210233078.html
A preliminary reading on S&P Global's US Manufacturing PMI showed the activity-tracking index hitting 51.9 in January. That was slightly below the 52 expected by economists tracked by Bloomberg, but a hair above the 51.8 print last month.

Meanwhile, the US Services PMI was 52.5 in January (so far), also short of the 52.9 projected but unchanged from the previous month. A reading above 50 signals growth, while those below reflect contraction.

Similarly, the Composite PMI, which combines the manufacturing and services surveys, hit 52.8 this month. That was higher than December's 52.7 but beneath economists' consensus estimate of 53. ((13 year graph of Composite PMI shown -progree))

The PMI, or Purchasing Managers’ Index, measures the health of the manufacturing or services sector based on surveys of business leaders. Overall, the readings showed business activity was relatively unchanged in January from the previous month.

THURSDAY JAN 22

# PCE inflation FOR NOVEMBER - the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. This is stale, considering that there are numbers out for both the December CPI and the December PPI (producer price index)
* LBN THREAD: Fed's main gauge shows inflation at 2.8% in November, edging further away from target, CNBC, 1/22/26 == https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143603115
* It was a combined October and November report. From a Yahoo article: "For portions of October lacking detailed information from the Consumer Price Index, which is used to calculate PCE, the BEA used an average of September and November figures."
* On a month-over-month basis, both November over October, and October over September came in at 0.2% -- that's true for both the headline number and the core number
* On a year-over-year basis, both the headline and the core numbers were 2.8%
* SOURCE URLS: 1/22/26 release: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
. . . CURRENT RELEASE: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-october-and-november-2025
. . . Full Release and Tables: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-01/pi10-1125.pdf
. . . PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
. . . CORE PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/PCEPILFE


# GDP Q3 (first revision) - expected to be 4.3% annualized rate, same as the initial estimate. It turned out to be 4.4% annualized rate
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-spending-pushes-us-economy-133751928.html
. . . From the PCE article: “The strength of the consumption data adds further weight to the idea that the economy might not need additional policy support, with real consumption rising by 0.3% in both months,” noted Capital Economics economist Thomas Ryan.

# Personal spending and personal income for NOVEMBER -- see:
* SOURCE URLS: 1/22/26 release: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
. . . CURRENT RELEASE: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-october-and-november-2025
. . . Full Release and Tables: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-01/pi10-1125.pdf

# Unemployment insurance claims
. . . US applications for jobless benefits inch up last week to a still-low 200,000 (( +1,000 to 200,000, 207k expected, week ending Jan 17 # Continuing Claims, week ending Jan 10: -26k to 1.85M ) AP, 1/22/26 == https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-applications-jobless-benefits-inch-133912723.html
* SOURCE URL: The CURRENT one is always at: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf . . . this release's permalink is at https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20260122
* Permalinks for the current one and recent previous ones: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases
. . . and search the page for "Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report"

WEDNESDAY JAN 21

# Pending home sales US pending home sales plunge to five-month low in December, Reuters, 1/21/26
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-pending-home-sales-slump-five-month-low-december-2026-01-21/
Pending home sales index tumbles 9.3%, reverse gains notched since late summer
Spending on new single-family housing projects slumps 1.3% in October

TUESDAY JAN 20 - None scheduled

MONDAY JAN 19 - Martin Luther King Jr. Day, None scheduled

Friday Jan 16

# Industrial production and capacity utilization - US manufacturing output unexpectedly increases in December, Reuters, 1/16/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-december-industrial-production-rises-142129670.html


Thursday Jan 15

# Unemployment insurance claims
. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims - Week Ending January 10: 198,000, down 9,000.
. . Note: Not Seasonally Adjusted: 330,684, Seasonally Adjusted: 198,000, quite a big seasonal adjustment
. Continuing Claims (week ending Jan 3): 1,884,000, down 19,000, 1/15/26
https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20260098.pdf
. Reuters - good article, they say the low seasonally adjusted initial claims level might be due to problem with seasonal adjustment. They also mention the NSA number above (330,684)
. . https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-unexpectedly-fall-amid-seasonal-adjustment-challenges-2026-01-15/

# Import prices

# Empire state and Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing surveys


Wednesday Jan 14

# Retail sales for November (delayed report) (KEEP IN MIND THESE ARE NOT INFLATION-ADJUSTED but they are seasonally adjusted)
Numbers are the increase over the previous month unless specified otherwise e.g. "12 months" which is the 12 month average aka year-over-year
Retail sales rose a better-than-expected 0.6% in November, and rose 3.3% in the past 12 months through November (while inflation thru November was 2.7%, so retail sales gained only 0.6% over the 12 months in inflation-adjusted dollars), AP, 1/14/26 == https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-sales-rose-better-expected-134204407.html
(The previous 2 months were pathetic: September was +0.1% (while inflation was +0.3%), October was -0.1% (there are no month-to-month inflation numbers for October or November; again all of these are seasonally adjusted numbers, but not inflation-adjusted),
The MahatmaKaneJeeves LBN Thread: Wholesale inflation was softer than expected, RETAIL SALES moved higher in November, 1/14/26 == https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143598490
. . . [] From the Source: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html -> https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html :
. . . [] Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services (MARTSMPCSM44X72USN), Not Seasonally Adjusted: -0.8% == https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MARTSMPCSM44X72USN
. . . [] Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services (MARTSMPCSM44X72USS), Seasonally Adjusted: +0.6% (September was +0.1%, October was -0.1%, ) == https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MARTSMPCSM44X72USS
. Very strange that in November, the seasonal adjustment process revised the November over October upward from -0.8% to +0.6%. October over September got seaonally revised downward from +4.9% to -0.1%

# PPI (Producer Price Index, aka Wholesale Prices) for November (delayed report)
Numbers are the increase over the previous month unless specified otherwise like "12 months" which is the 12 month average aka year-over-year
PPI for November +0.2% (Oct was +0.1%), 12 months: +3.0%
CORE PPI excluding food, energy and trade services: +0.2% (was +0.7% in October) 12 months: +3.5%, 1/14/26
Note that in November, for both the PPI and Core PPI, the 0.2% increase, when annualized is 2.4%, which exceeds the Fed's 2.0% target. And the year-over-year numbers (PPI: +3.0%, Core PPI: +3.5%) are well over the Fed's 2.0% target
. MahatmaKaneJeeves LBN Thread: Wholesale inflation was softer than expected, retail sales moved higher in November, 1/14/26 == https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143598490
. Ultimate Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

# Existing home sales (delayed report)


Tuesday Jan 13

# CPI Consumer Price Index - The headline (all items) number was as expected: December (over November): +0.3%, Year-over-year: +2.7%
The Core measure (which excludes food and energy) was a 0.1 percentage points below expectations: December (over November): +0.2%, Year-over-year: 2.6%. Note that the one-month numbers when annualized (3.6% and 2.4%) are over the Fed's 2.0% target, as are both year-over-year numbers.

The actual numbers calculated from the index values for more accuracy:
All items CPI: December (over November): +0.307% (which annualizes to 3.75%),
Core CPI: December (over November): +0.239% (which annualizes to 2.91%),

LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143597741

# New home sales

# Budget deficit

# NFIB optimism index

Monday Jan 12

# Nothing

FRIDAY, JANUARY 9

# Big BLS jobs report : +50,000 non-farm payroll jobs, unemployment rate ticked down from 4.5% to 4.4%. A LOT more to this story, for example, thanks to downward revisions of October and November, there are actually 26k fewer non-farm payroll jobs than were reported in the previous (December 16) report. AND , didya know, in December actual (meaning not-seasonally adjusted) jobs fell by 192,000, but seasonal adjustment turned that to a positive 50,000? Could YOU use a seasonal adjustment like that? AND, President literal asswipe posted several jobs numbers 12 hours before the 8:30 AM ET release time (did you know that they show the president and the entire Council of Economic Advisers the jobs report the evening before it is released?). AND there is probably a couple other things to say, I'll have to review the thread...
the LBN thread link, full of information, is https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143595598

# Consumer Sentiment - a slight improvement but graph still looks awful
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
GRAPH: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsr.pdf

THURSDAY JANUARY 8

# Unemployment insurance claims: 208,000, an 8,000 increase over last week

# Q3 Productivity - I haven't looked at it, but from a headline I saw, it's a big jump thanks to the 4.3% Q3 GDP (annualized rate) reported in December,

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 7

# ADP private payroll employment, +41,000 PRIVATE payroll jobs (by the way, in comparison the BLS jobs report that came out Friday 1/9, with the headline +50,000 jobs number, had a private payroll jobs increase of +37,000, a very unusally close match to the ADP number). (ADP has payroll data for about 20% of the private work force, and somehow they estimate the other 80%)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143594195
https://adpemploymentreport.com/

# ISM Services,

# JOLTS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, - kinda bad report. lowest job openings in over a year for one thing. The number of job openings fell in November, while the hiring rate was a paltry 3.2%. There were 1.1 unemployed people for every available job, the highest level since early 2021. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/layoff-plans-for-december-hit-lowest-monthly-level-since-2024-in-positive-sign-challenger-says-131808125.html (the article is almost all about the Challenger, Gray, and Christmas report, but the above blurb is in reference to the JOLTS report)


TUESDAY, JANUARY 6

* S&P Services PMI -- shows sector grew at slowest pace in 8 months in December
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-crosses-49000-sp-500-jumps-to-new-high-in-record-setting-start-to-year-194907643.html
(and scroll down that page)

MONDAY, JANUARY 5

* ISM Manufacturing -- US Factory Malaise Continues as Gauge Drops to One-Year Low, Bloomberg 1/5/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-factory-malaise-continues-gauge-152835595.html
head count shrinks for 11th straight month. (weren't tariffs supposed to fix that?)


FRIDAY, JANUARY 2

* S&P Manufacturing - I haven't seen the report

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 31

* Weekly unemployment insurance claims, 199,000. It was 214,000 in last week's report
https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20251646.pdf

TUESDAY DECEMBER 30

* Case-Shiller home prices index - I saw a headline: home prices up for a 3rd straight month, and up 1.4% since October 2024


MONDAY DECEMBER 29

* Pending home sales - I saw a headline: up 3.35% from November and up 2.6% year-over-year (non-govt, National Association of Realtors)


WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 24

* Weekly unemployment insurance claims - 224,000 was reported December 18. 214,000 was reported today, December 24, a drop of 10,000 . But continuing claims rose by 38,000 to 1.92 million (govt)

TUESDAY DECEMBER 23

* GDP Q3 first estimate (delayed report, normally released late September). (govt) -- it came in at a 4.3% annualized rate, well above the 3.3% rate economists were expecting. Various factors cited in media: an acceleration of EV purchases prior to the Sept 30 expiration of tax credits. A lot of spending by big tech companies on AI (investment spending boosts the GDP number). A substantial rise in exports (up 8.8% annualized rate) and a small drop in imports -- both these boost the GDP number, Federal spending also played a sizable role, a reflection of the large uptick in defense spending as well as buyouts for federal workers. Also, it reflects the "K-shaped" economy -- higher-income people flush with growing stock market wealth increased their spending, while lesser-income people struggled with higher prices and a weakening job market.
LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143587157 ## From the source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2025-initial-estimate-and-corporate-profits

* Consumer Confidence (Conference Board, non-govt) - result: the 5th straight month of decline. The worst since April, and at about the same level as seen in the 2020 pandemic year. Except there is no microbe-driven pandemic, it's all Trumpdemic now. Consumers’ assessments of their current economic situation tumbled 9.5 points to 116.8.
LBN thread (see graph in reply #2) https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143587258

* Durable goods orders - I haven't looked at yet

* Industrial production and capacity utilization - I haven't looked at yet


FRIDAY DECEMBER 19

* Existing home sales (non-govt) - I haven't looked at yet

* Consumer Sentiment final (non-govt) - here's an article:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-sentiment-shows-substantial-decline-from-last-year-amid-higher-prices-tough-job-market-160618145.html

THUR DECEMBER 18:

* Weekly unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Dec 13 (it was 236,000 for the week ending Dec 6) - In the week ending December 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 236,000 to 237,000. (govt)

* Consumer price index for November (govt) (note: the one for October was cancelled. The November one was originally scheduled for December 10 before the Fed's rate-setting meeting, but alas was delayed until 8 days after the meeting) - result: 2.7% year-over-year, a cooling from the 3.0% year-over-year reported in the September report, and a 0.2% increase over the last 2 months. LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143584377


TUE DECEMBER 16:

* The long-delayed big Jobs report (featuring the headline non-farm payroll jobs and unemployment rate) (govt). Expected: +50,000 jobs in November and 4.5% unemployment rate. Actual: -105,000 in October and +64,000 in November for a net drop of jobs over these 2 months of 41,000. Nonfarm payroll jobs averaged only 17k/month over the last 7 months and 22k over the last 3 months. These are seasonally adjusted numbers. The raw numbers (i.e. not seasonally adjusted numbers) are 204k/month and 416k/month respectively. And the unemployment rate is 4.6% in November, up from 4.4% in September. LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143583215

There was not, and never will be a separate October jobs report. The payroll stuff Establishment survey was taken and will be included in the November report (as it was in the Decmber 16 report). The household survey that produces the unemployment rate was not done in October, and so the October unemployment rate will be a blank in the records forever.

More details: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143583215#post19

The LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143583215 .

Please disregard all the comments about "Christmas hires" and "seasonal hires" - those have been adjusted for.

TUE DECEMBER 16 Continued:

There's another jobs report that came out -- the ADP report on PRIVATE sector payrolls:
16,250 private jobs/week for 4 weeks ending 11/29/25 (so roughly +65,000 private sector jobs in the month of November)
LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143583228
Again, ignore the comment about seasonal hiring. The ADP reports seasonally adjusted numbers
Also realize that The ADP numbers cover only about 20% of the nation's private workforce. They have to estimate the other 80%.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3506135

The retail sales report that came out December 16: Sept: +0.1% and October: +0.0%. Those are nominal dollar increases. After adjusting for inflation, which was 0.3% month-over-month in September, and an unknown amount in October, those are declines of real spending of 0.2% and 0.3%, assuming that October also comes in at 0.3% month-over-month inflation. Yes, they are seasonally adjusted.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/retail-sales-flat-in-october-as-uncertainty-tempers-consumer-spending/ar-AA1SsP9b

S&P flash U.S. services and manufacturing PMI's (non-govt) - I haven't looked at this yet

=================================================================

General Comments

Please don't believe the fabrication that Fed Chair Powell said, or implied, that the jobs numbers are "fudged". He did not. The person posting that claim included no excerpt that one can read to judge what exactly he said, and that was deliberate. When confronted, that person expressed some other reasons (again without supporting information) for believing the numbers are fudged. That may be so, But that does not excuse very deliberately misleading one's fellow progressives about what Powell said.


Please don't believe reports that 1 million or 1.1 million jobs were lost in 2025 so far, implying these are net job losses (jobs lost minus jobs gained). This is based on Challenger, Gray, and Christmas that reported 1,170,821 job cuts were ANNOUNCED. And they are just layoff announcements, and they are not net of hiring announcements or any actual hiring. As the monthly JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) shows, there are a lot of layoffs (and voluntary leavings of jobs) and a lot of hiring every month. The excuse that media misreports the Challenger report too is not an excuse for deliberately misleading one's fellow progressives, after being presented with the information about what the Challenger etc. report actually said.

The media mis-reports a lot of things like Hillary's email and Hunter Biden's laptop with cherry-picked misleading factoids, but that is never an excuse for echoing those reports here after being made aware of the factual record.


There's another myth that's spreading: that the new head of the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is a Trump appointee, E.J. Antoni. However, his nomination was withdrawn due to too many controversies.

The current head is Acting Commissioner, William J. Wiatrowski, who has served in this role twice previously, the first time from January 2017 to March 2019, and the second time from March 2023 to January 2024
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics


Global Stocks Trounce the S&P 500 in Trump’s Chaotic First Year, Bloomberg, 1/20/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-stocks-trounce-p-500-131530108.html

In fact, equities worldwide — once the US is excluded — have risen around 30% since he took office a year ago, roughly double the S&P 500’s gain, according to MSCI’s index. The US hasn’t lagged that much during a president’s first year since 1993, when the nation was recovering from a recession and investors were flocking to growing markets overseas.

Trump’s comparison with his predecessors is no better: As far as the S&P 500 goes, the first-year gain under Trump clocks in as only the ninth best start to a term since World War II, according to CFRA. Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Joe Biden — and even Trump during his first stint — all saw bigger gains.

US presidents, of course, don’t determine the direction of the stock market, as much as they take the blame or credit. But in Trump’s case, his trade war, foreign-policy surprises like pushing for a US takeover of Greenland, moves to exert greater control over key industries, and threat to the Federal Reserve’s independence have all periodically unnerved investors. That, in turn, has effectively tapped the brakes on a rally driven largely by the artificial-intelligence boom and the surprisingly resilient economy he inherited.
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[Also] MSCI’s emerging-market index rose over 30% last year, it’s biggest advance since 2017.

The S&P 500 gained 15.7% in Trump's first year, according to a table in the article, comparing the first year of all presidential terms since (and including) FDR.