We Told You So: The Costs of Attacking Iran Far Outweigh the Benefits

[BootinUp]

Trump says he was surprised by Iran's response to his attacks. He shouldn't have been. For years, experts have warned of the catastrophic risks.

Joe Cirincione
Mar 31, 2026

Donald Trump says he was surprised by Iran’s reactions to his attacks. “Nobody thought they were going to hit” the Gulf countries, he claimed.

Nonsense. Iran’s actions were completely predictable, and in fact, have long been predicted.

Conservatives in Washington have been talking about attacking Iran ever since a 1979 popular revolution overthrew the dictatorial Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi placed on the Peacock Throne in 1953 by the United States and the United Kingdom. For just as long, experts have warned of the foolishness of such a war. Every president from Ronald Reagan on concluded that the costs far outweighed the risks.

One of the peak campaigns for war on Iran occurred in the 2010-2015 period when President Barack Obama sought a diplomatic solution to Iran’s growing nuclear program.

I was then president of Ploughshares Fund. It was then a global security foundation, funding and connecting experts and advocates in effective, collective campaigns. One of the projects we funded was a report by nationally recognized military and diplomatic leaders to weigh the benefits and costs of military action against Iran.

Published in 2012, the report helped create political space for the successful diplomacy Obama undertook. The next year, Secretary of State John Kerry led a team of highly qualified experts to negotiate an interim agreement (finalized in 2015) that successful blocked all of Iran’s pathway to a bomb.

If Donald Trump had not pulled out of that deal in 2018, Iran would not pose a nuclear threat today. It would not have 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium that it could spin in advanced centrifuges into material for the cores of a bombs within weeks. It prevented an Iran Bomb and an Iran War.

Below, is part of the executive summary of the report. It is followed by excerpts from the full report on the costs of war with Iran.

Continued
https://open.substack.com/pub/joecirincione/p/we-told-you-so-the-costs-of-attacking