Here's Why Weather Forecasts Have Seemed So Inaccurate Lately

[douglas9]

Is there anything more annoying than leaving the house in shorts and flip flops, only to get caught in an unexpected downpour? The weather report is rarely spot-on, but if forecasts have seemed particularly inaccurate recently, it’s because they have been.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) was among several agencies gutted by the Trump Administration’s Department of Government Efficiency in 2025. That February, the U.S. Office of Personnel Management abruptly fired 880 NOAA employees. Two months later, NOAA approved over 1,000 deferred resignations or buyouts. These sweeping staff cuts forced the National Weather Service (NWS), the forecasting arm of NOAA, to halt or reduce weather balloon launches at 11 locations.

“We’re going to lose data because of this staffing,” Michael Morgan, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and former NOAA administrator, said at the time. “And that loss of data then translates into less precise forecasts, more uncertainties in the forecast.”

Before the cuts, the NWS was launching weather balloons twice per day (once in the morning and once in the evening) from 100 locations. Today, the number of morning launches in the Lower 48 has been reduced by half, according to MyRadar senior meteorologist Matthew Cappucci.



https://gizmodo.com/heres-why-weather-forecasts-have-seemed-so-inaccurate-lately-2000779436