Here's Why Weather Forecasts Have Seemed So Inaccurate Lately

[progree]

4. It matters to me a lot. I don't have a car so I walk about an hour to the grocery store, and part-way home

carrying a week's worth of groceries. (I take a bus home, but still it's 2/3 of a mile walk from the bus stop to home, which is quite a lot carrying $150 worth of groceries. It's about a 3.5 hour round trip including a bit over an hour at the grocery store.

So it is crucial to find a 4 hour window where I can be almost assured I won't get rained on. Yes, I do carry a poncho and wear a ball cap to keep it out of my eyes just in case. But having the groceries rained on, or being in the rain for an hour is something i want to avoid. Even with the poncho, I'd still be soaking wet from the knees on down while grocery shopping.

I have been thinking that in the last several months or more, the forecast for a given day (next day or day after) has been changing quite a lot from forecast to forecast. Now I know it wasn't my imagination or projecting from what I read about NOAA / NWS cuts back in the DOGE days.