The 2026 Election Is Being Decided at the Supreme Court

[Passages]

A case heard Wednesday will go a long way to determining whether Republicans can gerrymander their way to a near-permanent House majority.

by David Dayen October 16, 2025

The Trump gerrymandering tour has not been going well. So far, it has succeeded in Texas, where new districts could dislodge up to five Democrats, and Missouri, where lawmakers voted to muscle out Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO) by splitting up Kansas City. But Texas is under a legal challenge and, more importantly, still gives Democrats opportunities to hold onto at least two of the five seats, while the Missouri map could get challenged by referendum (surprisingly, without much help from national Democrats) and delayed into 2028. The Missouri Attorney General is now suing the signature gatherers, amazingly claiming that they are trying to silence the will of the politicians.

Meanwhile, California’s Election Rigging Response Act, which would draw new maps to likely offset losses in Texas with gains for Democrats, looks like it will sail to an initiative victory on November 4. Utah was forced by a judge to redraw its Congressional maps, giving one or maybe two Democrats a chance to win there. So accounting for what’s actually in place today, the outcome of the redistricting wars could be Democrats +1 or maybe even more.

Several other states are considering map changes; the fight is not over. But we don’t really have to look to Indianapolis or Tallahassee or Topeka or Columbus or anywhere else to figure out who will gain an advantage. You just have to look to One First Street, NE in Washington, D.C., the home of the Supreme Court.

SNIP*
What that means is that states could draw racially discriminatory maps, robbing minority voters of the fair chance to elect representatives. In practical terms, it means that a host of “minority opportunity” districts in the South will be obliterated. According to an analysis from Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter, overturning Section 2 could result in a direct shift of 19 districts to Republicans.
https://prospect.org/politics/2025-10-16-2026-election-supreme-court-gerrymandering-maps/